The Humber Partition
What does the economic data say about East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire - and why was it divided between two mayoral areas?
This is part nine in a series about the Northern Economy - and this one is about ‘East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire’.
Eagle eyed readers might spot that for the most part I have focused this series on the mayoral geographies of the North, yet there is no ‘Mayor of East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire’.
This is an area once covered by the old ‘Humberside Council’ which existed from 1974 to 1996 - a footprint that the ONS still use for many of their statistics. So for data reasons, I will stick with the geography of the old ‘Humber’ region - but I think it would be wise for the ONS to change their methodology to align it with the new areas of governance.
This area is split between mayors - but united politically. Both Hull and East Yorkshire and the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralties elected Reform mayors in May 2025. But the statistics in this piece only go up to 2023 so it is as yet far too early to render any verdict on the outcome of Reform on the economy.
But what can we learn about the recent past - and why was this area divided in two?
Looking at the leaderboard of Northern productivity, we can see that the Humber area was in the top half.
Focusing on the top ten sectors by GVA as defined by the ONS, there is a different pattern to other areas I have looked at. In common with the North East CA area, manufacturing is the top sector for output. But ‘information and communication, ‘financial and insurance activities’ and ‘professional, scientific and technical activities’ are absent. This is an economy that is one of the least focused on these kinds of services in the North.
In fact, before turning to look more in depth at the Humber area, it is worth pausing to note that this area is the most reliant on manufacturing of any in the North of England. As shown on the map below, it is worth 25% of GVA. This is followed by Cumbria on 22% and Cheshire on 20% (the chart is clickable - as most charts are on here!). Manufacturing trends in the North are a topic I will return to at a future date.
Turning back now to the Humber area, since 2019, the energy sector has grown strongly in terms of total output, as have construction and administrative and support services. Could this be related to the clean energy cluster in the area? For example, offshore wind has a big supply chain in the area.
Breaking this output growth down into the change in employment and a rough estimate of the change in productivity, there is an interesting pattern. Most of the increase in productivity is being driven by the property sector (“real estate activities”) and the construction sector is the only one to really register both a productivity and employment improvement. The largest sector, manufacturing, has seen little change in either employment or productivity.
Looking further into manufacturing, by far the largest sub-sector is ‘manufacture of petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals’ accounting for £2.4bn out of the £6bn of manufacturing. This is because the Humber area is home to big refining businesses (particularly close to Immingham) and chemical businesses (particularly at Saltend near Hull).1
What does all this mean for the future of the area? Three things stick out.
Firstly, the geography is now complicated - with the Humber now forming a divide between two mayoral areas. The old ‘Humber’ area was never much loved by the residents of East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire - with the council abolished in 1996. The old identities have reasserted themselves with politicians choosing to divide between a Hull and East Yorkshire strategic authority facing into the North and a Greater Lincolnshire strategy authority facing south into the Midlands. One headquartered in Hull; the other in Lincoln.
In terms of business, this might not make much difference: a Freeport was set up by the previous government across the Humber area and organisations like ‘Future Humber’ are looking to maintain links. There is a way of course to work across such boundaries - including a proposed mayoral joint committee - and actually having two combined authorities to coordinate could be said in some respects to be an improvement on four councils. But on the other hand, could this be an example of political boundaries not aligning with functional economic areas?
Secondly, manufacturing is in a process of change given geopolitical issues and moves towards clean energy. In the context of Reform’s national position on ‘net zero’ this has created tensions. Luke Campbell pulled out of an agreement with other Yorkshire mayors given their commitment to net zero, but he has said he will back green energy given the jobs and clean air benefit for his area. For example, a lot of the North Sea wind turbines are assembled by Siemans in Hull. Additionally, a carbon capture pipeline is proposed through the area to help balance growth imperatives with environmental objectives - this will be a key project to keep an eye on as success would be game changing for net zero. Any issues with political backing may put this investment at risk.
Thirdly, two new mayors from a new political party will provide the biggest signal of what Reform is actually doing in power. As yet there have been few real world deliverables given how early they are into their terms - but also perhaps more heat than light as shown by some of the debate around green energy above?
Overall, East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire is an economically important manufacturing centre divided by a big river - and now potentially divided between the North and the Midlands. Yet with manufacturing becoming more essential, two Reform mayors and projects like a carbon capture pipeline in the works there will be a lot to keep an eye on for the future.
The Chemical Industries Association think the Humber cluster is the second largest in the UK.